Friday, 30 November 2018

Foreign moolah flows into Indian market in Nov

FIIs which turned net sellers in Indian Capital markets in August, September and October pulling out nearly Rs 60,000 crore in the last three months turned net buyers in November.

After pulling out funds from Indian capital markets for three consecutive months in August, September and October, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned buyers in November.
They have poured in a little over Rs 10,000 crore (equity and Debt) in Indian markets so far this month as macro concerns receded due to fall in crude oil prices and a sharp appreciation in rupee against the dollar which went below Rs 70/USD in trade on Thursday.
“With the sharp decline in crude prices, almost 30 percent in 7 weeks, the key macro headwind for India has been addressed and the same is reflected in Indian rupee (appreciating over 4.6% in November, which is the strongest recovery in Asian FX),” Pankaj Pandey, Head-Research, told Moneycontrol.
“With crude price outlook fading on excess supply concerns and the US Fed adopting a slightly dovish tone, strong EM stories have started to make a comeback. India is stacked well in current set up and FIIs are likely to renew their focus on Indian markets,” he said.

Pandey further added that India continues to offer one of the highest positive real rates (accretive Bond Inflows) and equity market has also cooled off falling more than 10 percent from its record high in January 2018 and looking more compelling based on forward growth projections.
US Federal Reserve's dovish outlook also helped money to flow into riskier assets. One big factor that will act in favour of India is the earnings growth. HSBC analysts said MSCI India EPS (earnings per share) growth consensus expectations — of 18.8 percent in 2018 and 24 percent in 2019 — pegs India as one of the fastest growing markets across the region.
FIIs turning net buyers in the Indian market also boosted some of the FII-heavy stocks. As many as 44 stocks in the S&P BSE 500 index, where FIIs hold more than 10 percent stake, have rallied 10-50% so far this month.
Stocks that witnessed rally include Adani Transmission (up 50%), followed by PNB Housing (up 28%), PC Jeweller (up 2%), Pidilite Industries (up 22%), BPCL (up 21%), Future Consumer (up 19%), VIP Industries (up 18%), and Kajaria Ceramics (up 17%). The table shows top 21 stocks from the list:

“It is indeed pleasant to see FIIs turning net buyers of Indian equities in November and the hope is that the trend would continue. As of now, data seems to suggest that a large part of the inflows is on the account of emerging market ETF flows of which India, too, is a beneficiary,” Shibani Kurian, Sr. Vice President and Head of Equity Research, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company (KMAMC) told Moneycontrol.

Thursday, 29 November 2018

Avoid these 6 key mistakes while planning your retirement

People tend to procrastinate saving for their retirement since an early retirement is considered a luxury.

Can you survive without your income for a year? How about 6 months or even 3?
If your answer is a big ‘NO’, then imagine this, a standard retirement period is usually 15-20 years. That's how long you will have to survive without a steady source of income. The definition of retirement has changed from relaxing and sitting idle to people finally chasing their dreams and fulfilling their passions in life, without having to worry about their savings. if you want to earn big amount with very low investment in share market then you can contact TradeIndia Research.
Either way, you will need a nest egg to maintain your lifestyle. Which is why an effective retirement plan is mandatory. If you don’t plan your retirement well, the sudden lifestyle changes will affect you adversely. Today’s gig-economy has completely changed the idea of retirement. It is a free market system in which temporary positions are common and organisations hire freelance workers for short-term work. Even though it comes with its own perks, like flexible work hours, short-term assignments, part-time contracts, etc., it can impact your retirement because there is no steady income flow.
Despite knowing all these facts, we still tend to make mistakes that hamper a happy retirement. Here are a few mistakes that need to be avoided to enjoy an uncompromising retirement.
1. Not planning early enough
People are so busy with their lives that they only tend to concentrate on things that affect them in the present. People tend to procrastinate saving for their retirement, since an early retirement is considered a luxury. Most people only start to think about it in their late 30s or 40s, by when it becomes too late, with a lot of other financial responsibilities such as a home loan or children’s marriage piling on.
Planning an early retirement is a safe and secure option in the long run. Planning and saving for your retirement at an early age will offer peace of mind and the opportunity to chase your passion that you couldn’t all through the years due to your busy career.
2. Ignoring the inflation rate
People tend to neglect the effect of inflation on their retirement savings. However, it is one of the biggest financial risks to your retirement goal. If you don’t fall under the ‘higher income retiree’ category, then there is a big chance that it is going to affect even the most basic essentials in your life, such as food, medication, etc.
A wise decision to make here is to choose investments and plans that keep pace with inflation. Take the necessary steps by planning to offset the impact of inflation and you can experience a worry-free retirement.
3. Living life too large
It is important to inculcate the habit of saving from a young age. During the initial years of employment, you have the advantage of time – enough to plan and save. Though it might seem difficult to work towards this, it still is a necessity for a comfortable retirement. Spending a large share of your income without saving for future can lead to a serious money-crunch down the line. Remember, you will have to stop working someday!
4. Constant updating of your retirement plan
It is crucial to keep a track of your retirement plan. Just like the weather, the world we live in is also very unpredictable. Days might seem sunny now, but there is always a chance that a rainy day might come by. It will help you will need to have a backup umbrella to protect yourselves from any crisis.
Keeping a check on your retirement plan and keeping it updated will help you in coping up with any crisis that comes your way.
5. Not choosing the right government and private schemes
Apart from only focusing on primary matters, it is equally important to save an adequate amount for old age. After all everyone wants to tick off their bucket list or re-plan the missed holidays during their retirement period. Prices of day to day items are only increasing and money that we think has a high value denomination today is only becoming a mediocre sum by tomorrow.
Hence, it is vital to figure out an effective pension plan by investing in right government and private schemes like National Pension Scheme India (NPS), Atal Pension Yojana, National Social Assistance Program (NSAP), Provident Public Fund (PPF) and a host of other asset classes such as mutual funds, real estate, fixed income securities, etc.
6. Health is wealth
Health has a direct impact on our retirement plan, although we are all aware of that, a lot of us fail to realise just how important it really is. Today’s fast paced lifestyle has only brought more harm to our health conditions. New diseases and ailments are sprouting up every day and to top it all healthcare facilities are only getting more and more expensive.
Investing on good health schemes and plans are crucial and it will help in not burning up your retirement savings.
You have worked hard, and you deserve a worry-free retirement. So, avoid these mistakes and have an amazing retirement.

Wednesday, 28 November 2018

Yes Bank | Mphasis | Lupin | PNB | Reliance Capital | Inox Wind

Reliance Capital | Inox Wind | Orient Electric | Yes Bank | Lupin | PNB and Axiscades Engineering Technologies are stocks which are in the news today.

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Here are stocks that in the news today:

Punjab National Bank: Fitch ratings affirmed PNB's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at BBB- and its Viability ratings at 'b' while removing it from Rating Watch Negative.
Yes Bank: Moody's Investors Service downgraded bank's foreign currency issuer ratings to Bal from Baa3 with changing outlook to negative from stable.
Yes Bank: Rana Kapoor & Madhu Kapur draw up a draft proposal for mutual reconciliation - CNBC-TV18 Sources.
Yes Bank acquired additional 45,91,123 equity shares of Dion Global Solutions
Competition Commision approves LIC's majority stake buy in IDBI Bank
Lupin: Ramesh Swaminathan resigns as the Chief Financial Officer of the company.
Coal Block case: Fresh plea in Supreme Court places Adani JV under judicial scanner and SC seeks reply on allegations in the plea from Adani-led JV - CNBC-TV18.
Merck - Department of Pharmaceuticals, Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, GoI has approved the proposal of Merck Specialties for acquisition of the biopharma business of the company to its arm Merck Specialties by way of slump sale
Reliance Capital Q2: Standalone profit at Rs 197 crore versus loss at Rs 417 crore; revenue increases to Rs 991 crore versus Rs 417 crore YoY.
Mphasis Rs 988cr-buyback offer to open on December 7
Inox Wind: Company signed an exclusive agreement with AMSC, a global solutions provider serving the wind and power grid industry, to launch the 3 MW wind turbine which is especially suitable for low wind regimes in India.
Atul Auto: Company signed the term-sheet with JBM Industries for entering into a Joint Venture Agreement with an object to expand/ develop the business of three wheeler electric autos with the blend of respective expertise.
IIFL Holding - IIFL Securities has agreed to acquire 14.30% of the share capital on fully diluted basis of Giskard Datatech
Axiscades Engineering Technologies: Subsidiary Axiscades Aerospace & Technologies wins $20 million contracts.
Orient Electric: Company entered into a strategic partnership with De'Longhi Group, Italy.
Gillanders Arbuthnot: CARE revised its rating for long term bank facilities to BBB+/Stable from BBB+/Negative.
HCL Infosystems: Transaction for sale of the entire ownership and control held by Nurture Technologies FZE in its direct subsidiaries namely Gibraltar Technologies LLC (Dubai) and Gibraltar Technologies LLC (Abu Dhabi) including in its step-down subsidiary namely Gibraltar Technologies WLL (Qatar) has been closed.
Dredging Corporation gets in-principal approval of Cabinet for strategic disinvestment of 100% Government of India shares in company
Hinduja Ventures: Company's Investment Committee approved the disinvestment of 1 crore equity shares of Rs 10 each held by the company in Hinduja Leyland Finance Limited as per Independent Valuation of Rs 153.56 per share.
Suditi Industries: Company executed the Retail Product License agreement with NBA Properties, Inc. USA for commercial use. Accordingly the company can manufacture apparels/garments as stated above and sell them in the domestic market (Indian Market) and the contract is valid up to 31/12/2023.
Aurionpro Solutions: Company opens a new experience centre in Navi Mumbai.
Ravalagaon Sugar Farm board meeting scheduled on December 05 to consider and approve sale of fixed assets & approve capital expenditure
Bulk Deals
Agro Phos India: DK Investments purchased 1,20,000 shares of the company at Rs 43.6 per share on the NSE.
Sumeet Industries: Somani Overseas Private Limited bought 7,00,000 shares of the company at Rs 4.42 per share on the NSE.
Veto Switchgear Cable: Pushpa Devi Gurnani purchased 1,67,098 shares of the company at Rs 86.81 per share on the NSE.
Umiya Tubes: Vijaysinh Khumansinh Makwana bought 1,47,660 shares of the company at Rs 25.48 per share on the BSE.
Analyst or Board Meet/Briefings
Rural Electrification Corporation: Board meeting will be held on December 5 to consider the un-audited (standalone) financial results of the company for the second quarter ended September 2018.
India Green Reality: Board meeting will be held on December 4 to issue equity share on Preferential basis to promoter and/or non-promoters.
Ravalgaon Sugar Farm: Board meeting is scheduled on December 5 to consider sale of fixed assets & approve capital expenditure.
Titan Company: Company's officials will be meeting Macquarie Funds Management Hong Kong Ltd on December 3 and Generation Investment Management on December 13.
Pfizer: Company's officials will be meeting Batlivala & Karani Securities India Private Limited and its clients on November 28.
PI Industries: Company's official will be meeting Quest Investment Advisors and Darkhouse Capital on November 28; Ocean Dial Asset Management on November 29 and Barings Asset Management on December 3.
Dabur India: Officials of the company will participate in Morgan Stanley's Seventeenth Annual Asia Pacific Summit on November 29-30; and Nomura's Annual India Corporate Day on December 3-4.
Jindal Stainless: Company's officials will be meeting several funds / investors on November 28.
Sandhar Technologies: Company's officials will be meeting Mahesh Bendre of Karvy and Dharmendra Dave of JM Financial Services on November 28.
Vyapar Industries: Board meeting is scheduled on November 30 to consider the proposal for buyback of equity shares of the company.
Cummins India: Company's officials will be meeting HSBC on November 28 and Fidelity on November 30.

Tuesday, 27 November 2018

Sun Pharma | IFCI | Suzlon | NMDC | Yes Bank | Unichem Labs

IFCI | Suzlon Energy | Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and NMDC are stocks which are in the news today.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries: Company and its wholly-owned subsidiary entered into settlements with certain plaintiffs in the In re Modafinil Antitrust Litigation matter pending in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania. The Share market settlements extend to all claims brought by the direct are confidential.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries: Company to acquire Pola Pharma in Japan by way of cash consideration of 100 million Japanese Yen (approximately $1 million).
IL&FS Transportation Networks: Interest due and payable on November 26 on the NCDs was not paid to the debenture holders due to insufficient funds.
NMDC: Total iron ore production up to October 2018 at 15.47 million tonne and sales production at 16.55 million tonne.
IFCI: On account of resolution of Binani Cement through NCLT, IFCI, which is holding 42,16,850 security receipts of the face value of Rs 1,000 each has received an amount of Rs 491.84 crore, net of TDS of Rs 30.55 crore, pursuant to the said resolution.
Yes Bank: Promoter companies prepaid Rs 200 crore to Reliance MF and Rs 200 crore to Franklin Templeton - CNBC-TV18 Sources. Outstanding loans of bank promoters reduced to Rs 1,400 crore. Board approved resignation of K Balasubramanian as CFO and approved appointment of Sushanth Pai as CFO.
Oriental Bank of Commerce: Shareholders to consider issuing up to 5 crore shares under ESPS.
Richfield Financial Services: Board approved resignation of Abhijit Puglia as MD and appointed Rishabh Kankaria as the new MD.
Unichem Labs: Mumbai office receives Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from USFDA for post marketing adverse drug experience inspection.
Suzlon Energy: Company has completed sale of Tornado to CLP and accordingly Tornado has ceased to be a subsidiary of the company.
Sunil Agro Foods: Company has commenced commercial production on the expanded capacity.
TGV Sraac: To recommend appropriate Special Resolution for members approval at the Annual General Meeting for issue and allotment of 1,52,73,682 convertible warrants to the promoters (Brilliant Industries Pvt. Ltd., and Sri T G Venkatesh) at an issue price of Rs 37.01 per warrant to be converted into Equity Shares in the ratio of 1:1 within a period of 18 months of allotment.
Bulk Deals
Agro Phos India: Bharati Arvind Shah purchased 1,80,000 shares of the company at Rs 42.12 per share on the NSE.
GSS Infotech: Dharmesh Maldevbhai Godhania bought 1 lakh shares of the company at Rs 117.95 per share on the NSE.
Sita Shree Food Products: Daffodil Laboratories Private Limited purchased 3,72,049 shares of the company at Rs 0.75 per share on the NSE.
Analyst or Board Meet/Briefings
Motherson Sumi Systems: Conference organised by UBS Global Emerging Markets to be held on November 27 at New York and organised by Nomura to be held on December 3-4 at Hong Kong.
TIL: Conference call with the investors / shareholders of TIL has been fixed through Emkay Global Financial Services Limited on November 29.
Acrysil: Officials of the Company will be attending the investor conference hosted by Edelweiss on November 27 in Mumbai.
Greenply Industries: Investor and Analyst Meet to discuss the operating & financial performance and future growth plans of the company on December 6.
Mishtann Foods: Board meeting is scheduled on December 4 to consider to apply and authorise any director of the company, for making application for listing at Metropolitan Stock Exchange (MSE).
Welspun Corp: Company will be attending a conference Organised by Edelweiss Broking on November 27 in Mumbai.
Tata Steel: Company's officials will be meeting Legal & General Investment Management, Insight Investments, Amundi Pioneer and Stone Harbor Investment Partners on November 27 in London.
Inox Leisure: Board meeting will be held on November 29 to approve the issue price for the preferential allotment.
Godawari Power & Ispat: Dinesh Gandhi, Director of the company will be participating in conference organised by Edelweiss Broking Limited on November 27.
Muthoot Finance: Board meeting is scheduled on December 6 to consider the unaudited standalone financial results of the company for the quarter and half year ended September 2018.
Eicher Motors: Company's officials will be meeting JP Morgan Global on November 27.
Galaxy Surfactants: Officials of the company will be meeting investors and analyst at the plant and R&D centre on November 27 in Navi Mumbai.
Emmbi Industries: Company will be attending a conference Organised by Edelweiss Broking on November 27 in Mumbai.
Indostar Capital Finance: Company will be attending a conference Organised by Edelweiss Broking on November 27 in Mumbai.
Magma Fincorp: Company will be attending a conference Organised by Edelweiss Broking on November 27 in Mumbai.
Future Supply Chain Solutions: Officials of the company will be participating the "Edelweiss GWAM Emerging Ideas Conference" scheduled to be held on November 27 at Mumbai and would meet various categories of investors.
Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers: Company's officials will be meeting HDFC Fund on November 27.
Multi Commodity Exchange of India: Company will be participating in non-deal road show of UBS Securities India Private Ltd and IIFL Holdings Limited on November 26-27 in Hong Kong, November 29-30 on Singapore and December 3-5 in UK.

Monday, 26 November 2018

HPCL | Jet | GPT Infra | HCL Tech | Bajaj Finance | Wipro | Shalimar Paints

IOC | HPCL | Jet Airways | Shalimar Paints | Bajaj Finance | HCL Technologies | Wipro and Adani Ports are stocks which are in the news today.

Reconstitution of S&P BSE Sensex: HCL Technologies, Bajaj Finance to replace Wipro, Adani Ports in the BSE Sensex effective December 24, 2018.
Brent crude futures fall below $59/barrel: IOC, HPCL, BPCL, Jet Airways, SpiceJet, InterGlobe Aviation, Shalimar Paints, Apollo Tyres, MRF, Ceat, Asian Paints, Nerolac Paints etc may see some rally.
HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company: Board appointed Rushad Abadan and James Aird as Alternate Directors to Sir Gerry Grimstone (Non-Executive Director) and Norman Keith Skeoch (Non-Executive Director) respectively.
Strides Pharma Science: Company approved the participation of Strides in the Series B fundraiser of Stelis Biopharma Private Limited with a commitment of $15 million in a $100 million fundraise. Strides currently own 36.25 percent stake in Stelis, the former biopharma division of Strides.
Adani Enterprises: Company incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary namely, Mundra Copper Limited.
Infosys: EdgeVerve Systems, a product subsidiary of company, successfully implemented the ProximityPayEdge Digital Payments solution, to provide RCB Bank's customers with a digital wallet for secure contactless payments.
AU Small Finance Bank: Board approved to augment the capital by issue of Basel II compliant, Tier II, Non-Convertible Redeemable Bonds in INR, being classified as subordinated debt in one or more tranches up to Rs 500 crore including green shoe option.
IL&FS: Company is unable to pay short-term deposit including interest worth Rs 218 crore due November 22.
Cairn: Income Tax Department recovers Rs 5,500 crore by selling company's shares in Vedanta. Out of 18 crore shares attached by I-T Department, I-T now left with 25 lakh shares which will be sold shortly, said CNBC-TV18 sources.
Sundaram Multi Pap: Company has received BB- (Stable) credit rating from CARE Ratings.
Indian Card Clothing: Vinod Vazhapulli - Manager, designated as the Chief Executive Officer tendered his resignation from the said post.
Vipul Organics: Company has received a No-Objection Letter from the BSE Ltd, with respect to Scheme of Amalgamation of Efferchem Private Limited with itself.
Shree Rama Multi-Tech: Board decided to sell/ dispose of assets of Ambaliyara plant situated at Village Ambaliyara, Gujarat.
Reliance Industries: Reliance Industrial Investments and Holdings Limited (RIIHL), a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, has incorporated a company namely 'Jio Estonia OÜ' in Estonia. New company proposes to engage in the activity of software development and providing consultancy for existing and future technology initiatives pursued by the company and its subsidiaries.
Virinchi: Virinchi Hospitals commissions the first 'Out-reach Clinic' as a step towards pursuing its Hub & Spoke model.
InterGlobe Aviation: Devadas Mallya Mangalore, Chairman and Non Executive Independent Director of the company died on November 25.
Mahindra & Mahindra: Mahindra launches the Alturas G4, a luxury SUV to redefine the high-end SUV segment.
GPT Infraprojects: Company bags order valued at Rs 81.50 crore.
Suzlon Energy: CARE downgraded its rating for company's long term / short term bank facilities worth Rs 6,406 crore from BBB, Negative / A3+ to BBB-, Negative / A3; long term bank facilities from BBB, Negative to BBB-, Negative.
IIFL Holdings: India Infoline Finance, a material NBFC subsidiary of the company, has filed the Draft Shelf Prospectus with NSE and BSE for raising of funds by way of issue of non convertible debentures through public issue route upto Rs 5,000 crore in one or more tranches subject to necessary approvals.
Radaan Mediaworks: Board meeting is scheduled on November 30 to consider raising of funds through issue of securities on preferential basis.
Esab India: Board declared an interim dividend of Rs 90 per share of Rs 10 each (900 percent) for the year ended March 2019.
Mazda: ICRA re-affirmed the long-term rating for fund based limits at A and short term ratings for non-fund based limits at A1.
Bulk Deals
Silgo Retail: Overskud Multi Asset Management Private Limited sold 45,000 shares of the company at Rs 36.1 per share on the NSE.
Sirca Paint India: Gagandeep Credit Capital Pvt Ltd sold 92,800 shares of the company at Rs 218.4 per share on the NSE.
Paramount Communications: Nomura Singapore bought 28,23,126 shares of the company at Rs 8.45 per share on the NSE while Elara Capital Plc (FCCB) sold 34,68,787 shares at Rs 8.5 per share.
Talwalkars Lifestyles: Aequitas Investment Consultancy Private Limited - PMS purchased 4,64,000 shares of the company at Rs 110 per share on the NSE. Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund was the seller.
Analyst or Board Meet/Briefings
Piramal Enterprises: Committee meeting to be held for consideration of issue of non-convertible debentures on November 28.
Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company: Company's officials will be meeting Emkay Global Financial Services on November 27 in Chennai.
Tata Chemicals: Company's officials will be meeting Fidelity lnvestments on November 26.
Container Corporation of India: Company's officials will be meeting Wen Quan Cheong, Analyst, Mawer Investment Management through Sheryl Mascarenhas, Macquarie India on December 6.
Bank of Baroda: Bank is scheduled to meet on November 29 to consider issuance of fresh equity shares to its employees.
Siemens: Company's officials will be meeting analysts/institutional investors on November 26.
Nahar Capital & Financial Services: Board meeting will be held on November 30 to announce the unaudited financial results for the quarter and half year ended September 2018.
Amtek Auto: Company's 32nd Annual General Meeting (AGM) to be held on December 14.
Finolex Industries: Company's officials will be meeting analysts/institutional investors on November 27.
Indian Overseas Bank: Board meeting is scheduled on November 28 to consider the proposal to issue Basel III Compliant Tier II Bonds upto Rs 300 crore.
Mapro Industries: Board meeting is scheduled on November 30 to consider unaudited financial results for the quarter and half year ended September 2018.
Supreme Infrastructure India: Board meeting is scheduled on December 1 to consider unaudited financial results for the quarter and half year ended September 2018.
Larsen & Toubro: Company's officials will be attending Morgan Stanley's Seventeenth Annual Asia Pacific Summit in Singapore during November 28-29.
HEG: Senior management of the company is scheduled to meet Analysts / Investors from November 29-30 at Hongkong, as organised by Bank of America Merill Lynch.
Orchid Pharma: Board meeting is scheduled on December 1 to consider unaudited financial results for the quarter and half year ended June 2018.

Saturday, 24 November 2018

Sensex breaks 35K but 26 stocks give 10-30% return in 4 days

Volatility is expected to remain high due to scheduled derivatives expiry on November 29.

It has been a roller coaster week for India markets. The S&P BSE Sensex had a touch and go moment with 35,000 while for Nifty it was for 10700 levels as well as 200-days moving average (DMA).
The S&P BSE Sensex fell 1.3 percent while the Nifty50 saw a decline of 1.4 percent for the week ended November 22. Indian market remained shut on Friday on account of a public holiday.
The broader market outperformed benchmark indices. The S&P BSE Mid-cap index slipped 0.78 percent while the S&P BSE Small-cap index was down by 0.9 percent in the same period. However, there was plenty of action in individual stocks.
As many as 26 stocks in the S&P BSE Small-cap index rose 10-30 percent in just four trading session this week which include names like DB Realty, CG Power, Supreme Infra, KSK Energy, Electrosteel Steels, Indoco Remedies, Premier Explosives, Kesoram Industries etc. among others.
In the S&P BSE 500 index, as many as five stocks rose 10-20 percent which include names like RattanIndia Infrastructure Ltd, CG Power, Gammon Infra, Kwality, Diamond Power, Veto Switchgear, and 8K Miles Software Services Ltd.

Markets ended the three weeks of winning streak even though the beginning was upbeat, citing favorable indications from recently concluded RBI meet.
However, bias turned negative afterward and gradually pushed the index lower. Weak global cues, fall in crude oil prices, appreciating rupee weighed on IT stocks, as well as downward revision of global growth forecast weighed on sentiment.
In absence of any major event, assembly elections will remain in limelight. Among the remaining states, voting in Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram is scheduled on November 28.
“On the macro front, participants will be eyeing core sector data and Q2GDP data on November 30. Meanwhile, volatility is expected to remain high due to scheduled derivatives expiry on November 29,” Jayant Manglik, President, Religare Broking told Moneycontrol.
“The market is likely to remain under pressure thus traders should continue with “Sell on the rise” approach. Nifty failed to surpass the crucial hurdle at 10,800 and now it may find support around 10,350,” he said.
Technical Outlook:
The coming week is expected to remain volatile amid November month F&O expiry due on Thursday. Looking at the options data, the expiry should happen in the range of 10500-10800 levels.
On the macro front, market participants will also eye September quarter GDP data which is scheduled for Friday.
Icra in a report said that it expects GDP and Gross Value Added (GVA) growth to be 7.2 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively, in the second quarter of this financial year, down from the 8.2 percent and 8 percent respectively in the first quarter.
“The major event for the Indian equity market would be the GDP data that is eyed at the end of this month along with expiry. The numbers would certainly give a medium-term directional view for broader indices and decide the breadth for coming months,” Mustafa Nadeem, CEO, Epic Research told Moneycontrol.

Friday, 23 November 2018

'A breach of 10,239 levels on downside may take Nifty to sub-10,000 next week'

The larger trend is down and in favour of bears but there seems to be a critical support on the long-term charts around 10,239 levels where bulls may put up a strong fight.

Once a breach of 10,239 on the weekly closing basis happens we will be comfortable to project a downside target somewhere between 9,900 – 9,700 where Nifty should bottom out, Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research & Trading Advisory,, said in an interview with Moneycontrol’s Kshitij Anand.
Q) We saw a roller coaster ride for Indian markets this week. The index which reclaims 200-DMA came under selling pressure after reclaiming 10700. What is the sense you are getting?
Yes, as you rightly said, that Nifty50 faltered around its 200-day moving average (DMA) after entering into the bearish gap zone of 10,754-10,843 levels registered on 4th of October.
At this juncture what we need to understand is about the direction of larger trends which appears to have decisively tilted in favour of bears at least from August 2018 from the absolute highs of 11,760 levels (record high).
In fact, the market started slipping slowly into bear clutches from the beginning of January 2018 itself as suggested by the severity of the correction and weak advance-decline ratios on subsequent rallies.
When the larger trends are down the subsequent rallies are considered as counter-trend rallies (as they go against the main trend) and are bound to perish after retracing some of the lost ground before resuming the downtrend with an interim top.
Similarly, Nifty50 appears to have completed its counter-trend move around 10,775. In that case, eventually, all the gains which we have registered from the lows of 10,000 shall be wiped out.
It means we may also see Nifty trading sub-10,000 levels going forward and this projection is backed by a strong technical evidence based on historical price behavior with sell signals on long-term charts.
Contrary to our expectations, if Nifty50 regains strength and closes above 10,775 then we may see some more strength in the pullback rally which may get extended towards 11,069 levels.
Q) How are markets looking on the weekly charts? Considering we got expiry next, is it time to buy, sell or hold?
A) On the weekly charts, we have seen a ‘Bearish Engulfing’ kind of formation as the candle body completely engulfed the candle body of preceding week thereby making the weakness to get more pronounced.
However, in between support can be expected around 10,440 levels breach of which shall accentuate the selling pressure further.
Though the larger trend is down and completely in favor of bears there seems to be a critical support on the long-term charts around 10,239 levels where bulls may put up a strong fight.
Hence, we look out for breach of this level at least on weekly closing basis and once that happens we will be comfortable to project a downside target somewhere between 9,900 – 9,700 where Nifty should bottom out.
If it doesn’t then we have the worst case target around 9,000 where Nifty’s price will align with some of the critical longer-term averages which offered support to Nifty during bigger corrections in the past.
At this point in time readers may feel that it a very pessimistic projection. But, let us be a realist and remember the kind of volatility markets have seen during election time.
Recently, during the Gujarat state election result day, Sensex saw an intraday cut of 1,000 points in a single day. As we are heading for series of state elections along with general election around May 2019, this kind of information will only empower market participants.
Q) What is your view on Nifty Bank?
A) Relatively, Bank Nifty appears to have outperformed Nifty50 as it bottomed out on the 8th of October with a low of 24,240 against Nifty50 which hit a bottom on 26th October with a low of 10,004.
Besides, it has a strong technical reason to bounce back. It made a channeled move on the weekly charts since February 2018 high of 27,652. It has nicely recoiled after consolidating for a couple of weeks at the lower end of its channel.
Patterns on it are looking strong but Thursday’s price behaviour appears to have done the damage on this index. However, downside momentum shall pick up once this index below 25,700 levels. Contrary to this, strength in this index shall resume on a close above 26,379 levels.
Q) What do you make of recent fall in crude prices? Do you think it will help limit the downside for the equity markets?
A) Unfortunately, markets don’t work based on a single variable. Besides, it is looking like a very popular common mistake to suggest that a fall in crude prices will lead to rallies in equity markets.
Statistics don’t conclude so. In fact, historically, crude and equity markets are more or less have a positive correlation over the longer time period.
For instance, between 1998-2000 Nymex Crude rallied from a low of US $10 – 37, and during this period Nifty rallied from 803 – 1818.
Between 2001 – 2008, Light Crude rallied from a low of $16. And, during this period Nifty rallied from 849 to 6357.
Between 2009 – 2011, crude prices rallied from $32 and Nifty rallied from 2539-6300.
Same is the case on the downside.
Both equity markets and crude prices move hand in glove with each other. For instance in March 2015 when Nifty topped out at 9,119 and corrected by around 25 percent crude prices were down from $62.
Hence, based on this data we believe strong crude prices are an indication of a strong growth in the global economy. Therefore, if crude prices are down by 30 percent from recent highs of $76 - $52 it is something to worry about but not to celebrate.
Q) Do you think worst is over for INR?
A) INR appears to be on a strong pull back mode as it has depreciated by around 17 percent since January 2018 from the highs of Rs 63/USD to a low of Rs74.40/USD registered on 11th of October.
Hence, such a strong pull back is technically justified and may get appreciated into the zone of 70.20 – 69 which is the erstwhile breakdown point before resuming its weakness.
However, for time being it may remain range bound between Rs70-72.50/USD and significant weakness should not be expected unless it closes below 72.50 levels.
Q) Top three stocks which investors can look at for the coming week for a minimum holding period of 1 month?
A) Traders are advised to adopt a market neutral strategy and look for stock specific opportunities.
Chambal Fertilisers: Buy| LTP: Rs 151| Target: Rs 167| Stop Loss: Rs 139| Return 10%
This counter appears to have registered a breakout only to initiate a fresh leg of up move from its multi-week consolidation range on relatively higher volumes.
At the lower end of the consolidation, range appears to be a strong support, traders should adopt a two-pronged strategy of buying at market prices and adding further on lower levels around 140.
Hence positional traders can go long for a target of Rs 167. The Stop suggested for the trade is a close below Rs 139.
Jindal Saw: Buy| LTP: Rs 83.70| Target: Rs 90| Stop Loss: Rs 78| Return 7.5%
This counter appears to have posted a short-term bottom, with a price and volume breakout, after retracing around 62 percent of its last leg of the rally from the lows of Rs 71-90.
This positive price action on the back of huge volumes in Thursday’s session might be hinting towards a fresh leg of an upswing.
Hence positional traders should make use of this opportunity and go long for a target of Rs 90 and a stop placed below Rs 78 on a closing basis.
Dabur India Ltd: Buy| LTP: Rs 399.85| Target: Rs 460| Stop Loss: Rs 390| Return 15%
The last 4 days price action in this counter is looking quite positive and hence it may be on the verge of a breakout with a short-term bottom in place around Rs 390 levels.
In that scenario, it can be heading towards 460 kind pf levels. However, in between, if the resistance point of Rs 423 proves to be a big hurdle then it will be in need of a fresh breakout above that level.
Hence, positional traders can look for Rs 460 kind of target with a stop below Rs 390 whereas short-term traders should consider booking profits of around Rs 423.

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OPENING BELL SENSEX UP 85.05 @ 38692.06 NIFTY UP 16.15 @ 11612.85 BANKNIFTY DOWN 5.55 @ 29780.55 USD/INR 69.072 ...